“Prediction is difficult…especially about the Future!” This quote came to mind as I watched the July 4th fireworks this week. It was supposedly said by Nobel Prize winner Niels Bohr back in the 1940s. Lean experts repeat this quote to make the point that we must always test our predictions and never just assume they are true.

So, how did fireworks remind me of this quote?

In the summer of 1776, the Continental Congress gathered in Philadelphia to decide whether to declare independence from Great Britain. They debated for weeks. Finally, they took a vote and agreed to form a new nation. On the evening of the decisive vote, John Adams wrote these words about that day to his wife, Abagail:

[It] will be the most memorable…in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the Day of Deliverance by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations from one end of this continent to the other from this time forward forever more.

John Adams by David McCullough (Simon and Schuster, 2001) p. 130.

As the concussions thumped my chest and and brightly-colored explosions filled the sky, I recalled Adam’s prediction. He got the content right: we DO celebrate with games, parades, sports, and illuminations.

But Adams got the date wrong. He predicted we’d celebrate on the 2nd day of July–the day of the vote. We ended up celebrating July 4th–the day the resolution document was officially signed.

We must ALWAYS hold predictions lightly until they are confirmed by testing or the passage of time. “Prediction is difficult…especially about the Future!”